Empirically Calibrated Simulation Experiment of Non-Medical Vaccine Exemptions and Disease Outbreak Potential in California

Ka Yuet-Liu, UCLA, Sociology
An increasing number of U.S. children are entering schools without having received state-mandated vaccinations due to the rise of non-medical exemptions (NMEs). NMEs cluster spatially and create pockets of low immunization coverage. This study uses an empirically calibrated simulation model of all children under 18 in California to examine the effects of NMEs on outbreak potential. The model is calibrated with the observed spatial distributism of NMEs. We empirically calibrate the social contexts for children to come into contact with locational data (i.e., schools and shopping centers). Infection parameters are chosen to mimic that of measles. Such models help us gauge the relative contributions of the spatial clustering of NMEs and distributions of focal points to disease outbreak potential.
December, 5 2016 | 12:45 p.m. - 2:00 p.m. | Gross Hall 230E

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