Empirically Calibrated Simulation Experiment of Non-Medical Vaccine Exemptions and Disease Outbreak Potential in California

Ka Yuet-Liu ( UCLA, Sociology )
An increasing number of U.S. children are entering schools without having received state-mandated vaccinations due to the rise of non-medical exemptions (NMEs). NMEs cluster spatially and create pockets of low immunization coverage. This study uses an empirically calibrated simulation model of all children under 18 in California to examine the effects of NMEs on outbreak potential. The model is calibrated with the observed spatial distributism of NMEs. We empirically calibrate the social contexts for children to come into contact with locational data (i.e., schools and shopping centers). Infection parameters are chosen to mimic that of measles. Such models help us gauge the relative contributions of the spatial clustering of NMEs and distributions of focal points to disease outbreak potential.
December 5, 2016
12:45 p.m. - 2:00 p.m. | Gross Hall 230E

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Social Networks And Health: It’s Who You Know


Thursday, May 19, 2016Every office has experienced it. One person contracts a cold, and before you know it the entire group is coughing and reaching for the tissues. Our social connections have incredible implications for our health, and not just because they shape the spread of communicable diseases like the common cold, the flu or even HIV.


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Sparked by the confluence of a rapid rise in network techniques across the social and physical sciences, the Duke Network Analysis Center seeks to crystallize the latent talent in this area at Duke and around the triangle to build a world-premier source for cutting edge network studies. The rise of network science over the last 10 to 15 years is predicated on building scientific insight by modeling the complex patterns of connections that link primary elements to each other. The range of such work is exceedingly broad, since the unifying network abstraction is virtually content free. Thus, social network studies add relational context to our understandings of human behavior in areas as diverse as health, culture, organizations, science or politics. Similar tools are used to great advantage in biology, physics, and ecology to name just a few.